NC SENATE POLL: Tillis, Hagan falling short with Faith Driven Voters

GROUNDBREAKING NEW POLL: Faith Driven Voters Identified as One-Third of North Carolina Electorate, Say Hagan and Tillis Fail to Represent Their Values

Christians who view faith as significant factor in voting identify as Faith Driven Voters; 95% of FDVs believe they have responsibility to vote; 83% say faith should be a factor in politics and governing; 47% say candidates fail to connect

Our new American Insights data show that Faith Driven Voters – citizens whose faith significantly influences their voting decisions – comprise a full third of the electorate in North Carolina, people who hold sufficient votes to, if motivated, decide the North Carolina elections in either direction. These voters, who see politics through the lens of their faith and believe they have a responsibility to vote, don’t believe either party or candidate for the U.S. Senate represents them well at this point in the race.

“North Carolina, once called ‘The Buckle of the Bible Belt,’ is a state where faith plays a major role in the lives of its citizens. Today’s groundbreaking American Insights poll, the first time anyone has quantified Faith Driven Voters in the state, finds that they make up fully one third of the electorate,” said American Insights Director Pearce Godwin. “While 95% of Faith Driven Voters believe it is their responsibility to vote, they don’t believe that the major political candidates connect with them and represent their values. This powerful voting bloc appears to be up for grabs; there are more than enough disaffected Faith Driven Voters to swing the North Carolina senate race to the candidate who is best able to genuinely connect with them. Kay Hagan scores low with these voters, but Thom Tillis is also underperforming with them. While Kay Hagan’s rating among FDVs is consistent with that of the Democratic Party, Thom Tillis lags behind the Republican Party by seven points. This leaves each candidate with a unique opportunity down the stretch.”

Insights on Faith Driven Voters

• 86% of FDVs rate the influence of their faith on voting choices as an 8 or higher, with 66% of FDVs rating faith’s influence as a 10.
  • 87% of White FDVs rate influence 8 or higher, with 70% at 10.
  • 76% of Black FDVs rate influence 8 or higher, with 52% at 10.
• 95% of FDVs believe it is their responsibility to vote, and 83% say faith should be a factor in politics and governing.
  • 97% of White FDVs believe it is their responsibility; 79% say faith should be a factor.
  • 91% of Black FDVs believe it is their responsibility; 93% say faith should be a factor.
• However, 47% of FDVs say current political candidates connect poorly (35%) or not at all (12%) with their values.
• Only 19% of FDVs say candidates connect very well, while 29% say they connect moderately well.
• Only 27% of FDVs say the Democratic Party represents them well on the issues related to their faith, while just 45% say the Republican Party does.
• 26% say Kay Hagan represents them well, while 38% say Thom Tillis does. Both candidates have a lot of ground to make up with this potentially decisive voter bloc.

METHODOLOGY: American Insights surveyed 600 Registered Voters in North Carolina between September 5^th and 10^th, then determined 459 to be Likely Voters based on four turnout questions. The margin of error is ±4.0% for Registered Voters and ±4.6% for Likely Voters. ‘Triple Helix’ mixed modal surveying methodology included 50% live landline phone, 20% cell phone and 30% online.  All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics and the sample was designed to accurately reflect the actual registered voter population in North Carolina according to age, race, gender, geographic area and party registration.  On party registration, the registered voter sample precisely matches the registered voter population at 42% Democrat, 31% Republican, 27% Unaffiliated.