NEW POLL: Tillis Supporters 50% More Likely to Cite Foreign Affairs as Most Important Issue; Hagan Supporters 57% More Likely to Cite Economy NC State students at Pack Poll team up with American Insights to analyze open-ended important issue responses from North Carolina voters, find telling discrepancies between senate candidates’ support bases; NC remains conservative on role of government Our new American Insights data show that North Carolina voters remain fundamentally conservative regarding the role of government, with 51% saying it is doing too much and only 38% wishing government wouldRead More

GROUNDBREAKING NEW POLL: Faith Driven Voters Identified as One-Third of North Carolina Electorate, Say Hagan and Tillis Fail to Represent Their Values Christians who view faith as significant factor in voting identify as Faith Driven Voters; 95% of FDVs believe they have responsibility to vote; 83% say faith should be a factor in politics and governing; 47% say candidates fail to connect Our new American Insights data show that Faith Driven Voters – citizens whose faith significantly influences their voting decisions – comprise a full third of the electorate inRead More

McCrory Approval +3 at 43-40; Governor Leads Cooper by 2    (40-38); Obama 6 Points Under Water Our new American Insights poll shows that Governor McCrory is narrowly in positive approval territory with North Carolina registered voters at 43% approval to 40% disapproval. 16% strongly approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor, while 27% strongly disapprove. Looking ahead to his likely 2016 matchup with Attorney General Roy Cooper, McCrory currently holds a slim, two-point lead at 40% to 38%. Intensity of support is roughly equivalent as 29% of voters wouldRead More

Likely Voters oppose same-sex marriage 48-44, Registered Voters tied at 46; 62% say voters, not courts, should decide marriage law; Oppose AG Roy Cooper’s decision to not defend Amendment One 46-41 Our new American Insights poll shows that North Carolina voters remain divided on the issue of same-sex marriage, with registered voters exactly tied on the question while likely voters oppose redefining marriage by 4 points, 48-44. At the same time, North Carolina registered voters overwhelmingly believe that they, not courts, should decide the issue, 62-26. Voters oppose (46-41) Attorney GeneralRead More

39% of likely voters watched Hagan-Tillis debate, judged Hagan the winner by a 54% to 33% margin; 79% of likely voters have seen or heard political ads, but only 21% say ads influenced their opinion; 68% say that control of US Senate a factor in voting decision Our new American Insights poll shows Senator Kay Hagan with a 9-point lead, at 43-34, among Likely Voters. She leads among men, women and Independents. NC House Speaker Thom Tillis leads both among white voters and native North Carolinians. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of votersRead More

By Pearce Godwin, Insights Director With Labor Day now behind us, the US Senate race in North Carolina is set to quickly heat up and will only get more intense over the next nine weeks until Election Day on November 4th. The homestretch will get a jumpstart Wednesday night with the first debate between Senator Kay Hagan and Speaker Thom Tillis. Not too much has changed since our last state-of-play analysis on August 8th. North Carolina is still poised to be the decisive race for party control of the UnitedRead More

North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan’s halting embrace of President Barack Obama this week showed the incumbent is in a dogfight to hold on to her seat in a state the president lost in 2012. But if the race stays close as it looks right now, voter registration data out of the state suggest Ms. Hagan might have at least a little bit of help lurking in the state’s voter rolls. Since 2010, the last senate race in the state, the North Carolina has gained about 300,000 people. And comparing registration from then and now (August 2010Read More

WASHINGTON, D.C. — With a critical midterm U.S. Senate election approaching — one that could help decide which party controls the upper chamber — about as many North Carolinians lean or identify Democratic (42%) as they do Republican (41%). This effective draw between the two major parties demonstrates the extent to which political attitudes have shifted in North Carolina since 2008, when Democrats had a 10-percentage-point advantage over Republicans in party leanings (49% vs. 39%, respectively). That same year, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, who is currently competing for re-election, wasRead More

By Pearce Godwin, Insights Director Now within 100 days of Election Day, we are seeing a higher frequency of polling on the North Carolina Senate Race between incumbent Kay Hagan and House Speaker Thom Tillis. The attention of the political world is turning toward North Carolina as our race may very well be the decisive tipping point for control of the United States Senate. Republicans require a net gain of six seats to wrest control from Democrats. Three Republican pickups are almost assured – in South Dakota, West Virginia andRead More

By Sean Sullivan If you watch just one Senate race this year, make it North Carolina. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee just launched a $9.1 million TV ad campaign there. That’s a big-time investment that reaffirms 1) just how crucial North Carolina is in the battle for the majority and 2) just how expensive it will be to win the state. Let’s start with the first point by reviewing the Senate map. Republicans need to gain six seats to win the majority. They are heavy favorites to win open seatsRead More