NEW AI POLL: McCrory Positive, Leads Cooper in ’16 Matchup

McCrory Approval +3 at 43-40; Governor Leads Cooper by 2    (40-38); Obama 6 Points Under Water

Our new American Insights poll shows that Governor McCrory is narrowly in positive approval territory with North Carolina registered voters at 43% approval to 40% disapproval. 16% strongly approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor, while 27% strongly disapprove. Looking ahead to his likely 2016 matchup with Attorney General Roy Cooper, McCrory currently holds a slim, two-point lead at 40% to 38%. Intensity of support is roughly equivalent as 29% of voters would definitely vote for McCrory while 27% would definitely vote for Cooper. Among likely 2014 voters, McCrory leads by three, 43% to 40%. President Obama’s approval is six points under water with North Carolina registered voters, 42-48. He also suffers negative intensity in the Tar Heel State with 41% strongly disapproving of his job as president, compared to only 22% who strongly approve.

“North Carolina voters are closely divided on the Governor’s performance in office as well as his likely reelection matchup with Attorney General Roy Cooper in 2016; however, in both cases he is on the positive side of the split.” said American Insights Director Pearce Godwin. “McCrory enjoys significantly stronger net approval than President Obama, who finds 41% of North Carolina voters strongly disapproving of the job he’s doing in the White House and 6% more disapproving than approving.”

McCrory Approval

• Governor McCrory earns positive net approval from registered voters, 43-40. 16% strongly approve of his performance, while a larger 27% strongly disapprove.
• These are the exact same approval numbers (43-40) we found for McCrory in our February Signature Survey.
• Men approve of the Governor by 10 points, 48-38. Women disapprove of McCrory by 2 points, 39-41.
• Young voters (age 18-34) narrowly approve of McCrory’s performance 34-32, with 24% undecided. He is opposed by voters age 35-49 by 11 points, 36-47. Voters age 50-64 approve by 9 points, 51-42, while the oldest voters (65+) approve by 13 points, 52-39.
• White voters approve of the Governor by 13 points, 49-36. However, Black voters are opposed to him by 33 points, 23-56, with 44% strongly disapproving.
• Republicans approve of their Governor’s performance by 50 points, 68-18. Democrats oppose him by 42 points, 22-64. A majority of Independents (51%) approve, compared to 34% who disapprove.
• Conservative approve of McCrory by 54 points, 70-16. Liberals disapprove of him by 53 points, 18-71, with a majority (53%) strongly disapproving (Only 29% of Conservatives strongly approve). Moderates also disapprove, but much more narrowly, by eight points at 36-44.

McCrory-Cooper 2016

• Governor McCrory has an early two point lead (40-38) over his likely 2016 rival Attorney General Roy Cooper among registered voters. 29% would definitely vote for McCrory, while 27% would definitely vote for Cooper.
• This is a narrower lead for McCrory than the six point advantage (44-38) we found in our February Signature Survey.
• McCrory leads among Men, 44-36, but trails among Women, 36-40.
• McCrory very narrowly leads among young voters (age 18-34) by one point, 32-31, with 27% of young voters undecided on the 2016 race. Voters age 35-49 support Cooper over McCrory by 12 points, 46-34. Voters age 50-64 support the incumbent Governor 44-40. Oldest voters (65+) would reelect McCrory by 12, 48-36.
• White voters would reelect McCrory by 15 points, 47-3. However, Black voters would vote for Cooper to replace him by 45 points, 62-17. 46% of Black voters would definitely vote for Cooper compared to 35% of White voters who would definitely vote for McCrory.
• Republicans would vote to reelect their Governor by 63 points, 73-10. Democrats would support Cooper’s challenge by 53 points, 69-16. Independents would opt to reelect McCrory 46-41. 58% of Republicans would definitely vote for him, while 54% of Democrats would definitely vote for Cooper.
• 72% of Conservatives would reelect McCrory, compared to 12% who would support Cooper (+60). 73% of Liberals would back Cooper, compared to 15% who would favor McCrory (+58). Moderates are behind Cooper’s challenge by 12 points, 41-29, with 20% undecided. 58% of Conservatives would definitely vote for McCrory, while 56% of Liberals would definitely vote for Cooper.

Obama Approval

• President Obama’s net approval is negative six with NC registered voters, 42-48. 41% strongly disapprove of the job he’s doing, while only 22% strongly approve.
• This is the same net approval (-6) we found for Obama in our February Signature Survey, 43-49.
• Men disapprove of Obama by 12 points, 38-50, while women are more evenly divided at 44-46.
• Young voters (age 18-34) approve of Obama’s performance by eight points, 43-35. Those aged 35-49 approve by six points, 50-44. However, voters age 50-65 disapprove 38-56, with a majority strongly disapproving. The oldest voters, age 65+, disapprove of Obama 37-58, with 54% strongly disapproving.
• White voters disapprove of Obama by 32-59, but Black voters approve 80-10, with 52% strongly approving.
• Republicans disapprove of the President 5-87, with 79% strongly disapproving. Democrats approve of their President 76-16, with 44% strongly approving. Independents disapprove of Obama’s performance by ten points, 39-49, with 42% strongly disapproving and only 15% strongly approving.
• Conservatives disapprove of Obama 15-79, with 73% strongly disapproving. Liberals approve 78-17, with 43% strongly approving. Moderates approve by six points 45-39.

METHODOLOGY: American Insights surveyed 600 Registered Voters in North Carolina between September 5^th and 10^th, and then determined 459 to be Likely Voters based on four turnout questions. The margin of error is ±4.0% for Registered Voters and ±4.6% for Likely Voters. ‘Triple Helix’ mixed modal surveying methodology included 50% live landline phone, 20% cell phone and 30% online.  All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics and the sample was designed to accurately reflect the actual registered voter population in North Carolina according to age, race, gender, geographic area and party registration.  On party registration, the registered voter sample precisely matches the registered voter population at 42% Democrat, 31% Republican, 27% Unaffiliated.