AI WB Political Polling

September NC Signature Poll Results

1.  In November we will be holding elections for several offices including US Senate and House as well as state and local offices.  Thinking ahead to these elections, how likely would you say it is that you will vote? Would you say…

 

RV        LV

56%     72%      EXTREMELY LIKELY

24%     26%      VERY LIKELY

12%     2%         SOMEWHAT LIKELY

3%       0%        NOT VERY LIKELY

3%       0%        NOT AT ALL LIKELY

2%       0%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

2.  Please rate your chances of voting in November’s midterm election on a scale of 1 to 10. If 1 represents someone who definitely will not vote and 10 represents someone who definitely will vote, where on this scale of 1 to 10 would you place yourself?

 

RV        LV

58%     74%     10

9%       11%      9

13%     12%      8

6%       2%        7

3%       0%        6

5%       0%        5

1%       0%        4

2%       0%       3

1%       0%        2

2%       0%        1

1%       0%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

3.  Thinking about ALL elections since you registered to vote – not just presidential elections, but also midterm and local elections – how often would state records show that you voted?

 

RV        LV

33%     41%      ALWAYS

38%     46%     NEARLY ALWAYS

16%     11%       PART OF THE TIME

8%       2%        SELDOM

4%       0%        NEVER

1%       0%         DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

4.  How much attention are you paying to politics, candidates and the upcoming elections?

 

RV        LV

51%     65%      QUITE A LOT

34%     30%     SOME

12%     5%        ONLY A LITTLE

3%       1%        NONE

<1%     0%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

5.  Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?

 

RV        LV

46%     55%     MORE ENTHUSIASTIC

30%     24%     LESS ENTHUSIASTIC

22%     19%      SAME

2%       1%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

6.  If the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, or Libertarian Sean Haugh?  If choice: And would you say that is definitely or probably Hagan/Tillis/Haugh?  If undecided: Would you say you are leaning towards Hagan, Tillis or Haugh?

 

RV        LV

29%     34%     DEFINITELY HAGAN

9%       8%        PROBABLY HAGAN

4%       3%        LEAN HAGAN

11%     8%        UNDECIDED

2%       2%       LEAN TILLIS

7%       8%       PROBABLY TILLIS

22%     26%     DEFINITELY TILLIS

1%       1%        LEAN HAUGH

4%       4%       PROBABLY HAUGH

2%       1%        DEFINITELY HAUGH

9%       5%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

38%     43%     TOTAL HAGAN

29%     34%     TOTAL TILLIS

6%       5%        TOTAL HAUGH

42%     46%     TOTAL HAGAN (INCL LEANERS)

31%     36%      TOTAL TILLIS (INCL LEANERS)

7%       6%         TOTAL HAUGH (INCL LEANERS)

 

6A.  HAUGH SUPPORTERS ONLY: What is your primary reason for your choice in Senate candidate?

 

RV        LV

23%     21%      THEY SHARE MY IDEOLOGY

7%       11%       I LIKE THEIR EXPERIENCE

48%     46%     I DON’T LIKE THE OTHER TWO CANDIDATES

16%     11%       I DON’T LIKE THE OTHER TWO PARTIES

7%       11%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

6B.  HAUGH SUPPORTERS ONLY: Would you consider voting for another candidate when the time comes to cast your ballot, or not?

 

RV        LV

71%     82%     YES

21%     11%      NO

9%       7%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

7.  If your only choices in the Senate race were Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis, for whom would you vote?  If choice: And would you say that is definitely or probably Hagan/Tillis?  If undecided: Would you say you are leaning towards Hagan or Tillis?

 

RV        LV

33%     38%     DEFINITELY HAGAN

10%     9%       PROBABLY HAGAN

4%       3%       LEAN HAGAN

10%     7%       UNDECIDED

3%       2%       LEAN TILLIS

7%       6%       PROBABLY TILLIS

27%     31%     DEFINITELY TILLIS

7%       4%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

44%     47%     TOTAL HAGAN

33%     38%     TOTAL TILLIS

47%     50%     TOTAL HAGAN (INCL LEANERS)

36%     40%     TOTAL TILLIS (INCL LEANERS)

 

8.  Do you think of your vote for Congress as a vote for Obama, as a vote against Obama, or is he not much of a factor in your vote?

 

RV        LV

21%     21%      FOR OBAMA

29%     31%     AGAINST OBAMA

44%     42%     NOT A FACTOR

7%       6%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

9.  Will the issue of which party controls the US Senate be a factor in your vote, or not?

 

RV        LV

62%     68%     YES

32%     29%      NO

6%       3%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

10.  Did you watch the recent debate between Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan, or not?

 

RV        LV

34%     39%     YES

65%     59%      NO

1%       1%         DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

10A.  If yes: Which candidate did you think performed better in the debate, Thom Tillis or Kay Hagan?

 

RV        LV

52%     54%     HAGAN

33%     33%     TILLIS

15%     13%      DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

10B.  If yes: Did you learn anything about the candidates by watching the debate that you did not already know?

 

RV        LV

44%     44%     YES

53%     53%      NO

4%       3%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

11.  If you owned a business, who would you trust more to run it, Kay Hagan or Thom Tillis?

 

RV        LV

34%     36%     HAGAN

34%     38%     TILLIS

1%       1%         BOTH

16%     13%      NEITHER

16%     12%      DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

12.  Have you seen or heard political advertisements regarding the US Senate race in North Carolina between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis? If so, have the ads influenced your opinion of the candidates?

 

RV        LV

21%     21%      YES, AND INFLUENCED OPINION

55%     58%     YES, BUT DID NOT INFLUENCE OPINION

21%     18%      NO, HAVE NOT SEEN OR HEARD ADS

4%       3%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

12A.  If yes: How often have you seen or heard political ads regarding the Senate race recently?

 

RV        LV

33%     37%     MULTIPLE TIMES PER DAY

27%     29%     DAILY

24%     22%     A FEW TIMES A WEEK

8%       7%       WEEKLY

6%       5%       LESS THAN WEEKLY

2%       1%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

13.  In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator?  And would you say you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

 

RV        LV

18%     21%      STRONGLY APPROVE

25%     25%      SOMEWHAT APPROVE

10%     8%        UNDECIDED

15%     14%       SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE

26%     30%     STRONGLY DISAPPROVE

6%       3%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

43%     46%     TOTAL APPROVE

41%     43%     TOTAL DISAPPROVE

14.  Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?

RV       LV
46%    44%       SHOULD BE RECOGNIZED
46%    48%       SHOULD NOT BE RECOGNIZED
9%       8%         DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

15. Regardless of your own preference on the same-sex marriage issue, do you believe North Carolina law defining marriage should be determined by voters or courts?

RV       LV
62%     63%      VOTERS
26%     27%      COURTS
12%      10%     DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

16. North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper has publicly announced that he will not defend in court the State Constitutional Amendment passed by voters in 2012 defining marriage as between one man and one woman. Do you support or oppose his decision?

RV        LV
41%      43%      SUPPORT
46%     47%      OPPOSE
13%      10%      DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

17. If the election for governor were held today would you vote for Republican Pat McCrory or Democrat Roy Cooper? And would you say that is definitely or probably McCrory/Cooper?

RV         LV
29%      33%     DEFINITELY MCCRORY
11%       10%      PROBABLY MCCRORY
15%       11%      UNDECIDED
11%       11%      PROBABLY COOPER
27%      30%     DEFINITELY COOPER
7%         5%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

40%     43%      TOTAL MCCRORY
38%     40%      TOTAL COOPER

18. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat McCrory is doing as North Carolina Governor? And would you say you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

RV        LV
16%      18%      STRONGLY APPROVE
27%      28%     SOMEWHAT APPROVE
11%       9%       UNDECIDED
13%      14%      SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
27%      29%     STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
6%        2%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

43%    46%    TOTAL APPROVE
40%    42%    TOTAL DISAPPROVE

19. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? And would you say you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

RV        LV
22%      23%      STRONGLY APPROVE
20%     20%      SOMEWHAT APPROVE
7%        5%        UNDECIDED
7%        5%        SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
41%      44%      STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
3%        3%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

42%    43%     TOTAL APPROVE
48%    49%     TOTAL DISAPPROVE

20. What do you believe is the most important issue facing the nation? [Open Ended]

LV
36%     ECONOMY
25%     OTHER DOMESTIC ISSUES
21%     FOREIGN AFFAIRS
3%       MORALITY/RELIGION
10%     OTHER
6%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

21. What do you care more about as a voter, social issues or economic issues?

RV        LV
26%      26%      SOCIAL ISSUES
64%      64%      ECONOMIC ISSUES
10%      10%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

22. Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Other people think that the government should do more to solve our country’s problems. Which comes closer to your own view?

RV        LV
48%      51%      GOVERNMENT DOING TOO MUCH
39%      38%     GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO MORE
13%      11%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

23. With which religious faith do you self-identify?

RV       LV
55%     58%     CHRISTIAN – PROTESTANT
11%     12%      CHRISTIAN – CATHOLIC
1%       1%        JEWISH
1%       1%        MUSLIM
16%     16%     OTHER RELIGION
12%     10%     NON-RELIGIOUS
4%       3%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

24. If Christian: On a scale from 1 to 10, how strongly would you say your Christian faith influences your voting choices, with 1 meaning your faith has no influence and 10 meaning your faith has a major influence?

RV       FDV
37%     66%    10
6%       8%       9
12%     12%     8
9%       7%       7
5%       3%       6
13%     1%        5
3%       0%       4
4%       0%       3
3%       1%        2
8%       3%       1
1%       2%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

25. If Christian: As a person of faith, do you believe it is your responsibility to vote, or not?

RV       FDV
83%     95%    YES
12%      4%      NO
5%        1%      DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

26. If Christian: Do you think faith should be a factor in politics and governing, or not?

RV       FDV
54%     83%     YES
40%     16%     NO
6%       2%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

27. If Christian: In general, how well do political candidates connect or resonate with you as a Christian?

RV       FDV
12%     19%      VERY WELL
33%     29%     MODERATELY WELL
30%     35%     POORLY
17%     12%      NOT AT ALL
9%       6%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

28. If Christian: Do you feel the Republican Party represents you well on the issues related to your faith, or not?

RV       FDV
35%     45%     YES
53%     47%     NO
12%     9%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

29. If Christian: Do you feel the Democrat Party represents you well on the issues related to your faith, or not?

RV       FDV
26%     27%     YES
62%     65%     NO
12%     9%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

30. If Christian: Do you feel Republican senate candidate Thom Tillis represents you well on the issues related to your faith, or not?

RV       FDV
27%     38%     YES
45%     37%     NO
28%     26%     DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

31. If Christian: Do you feel Democratic senate candidate Kay Hagan represents you well on the issues related to your faith, or not?

RV       FDV
24%     26%     YES
55%     61%     NO
21%     14%     DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

32. If Christian: Do you consider yourself to be a faith driven voter, defined as someone whose faith significantly influences their daily decisions, including voting choices, or not?

RV       FDV
50%     100%   YES
45%     0%       NO
5%       0%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

A.  Gender

 

RV        LV

46%     49%     MALE

54%     51%      FEMALE

 

B.  In what year were you born?

 

RV        LV

27%     20%     18-34

23%     23%     35-49

28%     31%     50-64

22%     25%     65+

 

C.  Politically, do you think of yourself as a…

 

RV        LV

17%     20%     STRONG REPUBLICAN

9%       7%       NOT SO STRONG REPUBLICAN

26%     27%     INDEPENDENT

12%     11%      NOT SO STRONG DEMOCRAT

24%     25%     STRONG DEMOCRAT

2%       2%       LIBERTARIAN

6%       5%       SOMETHING ELSE

4%       3%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

26%     27%     TOTAL REPUBLICAN

26%     27%     INDEPENDENT

36%     36%     TOTAL DEMOCRAT

 

D.  How would you describe your political views?

 

RV        LV

12%     14%      VERY CONSERVATIVE

23%     24%     CONSERVATIVE

33%     29%     MODERATE

17%     18%       LIBERAL OR PROGRESSIVE

9%       10%      VERY LIBERAL OR PROGRESSIVE

6%       5%        DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

35%     38%     TOTAL CONSERVATIVE

33%     29%     MODERATE

26%     28%     TOTAL LIBERAL OR PROGRESSIVE

 

E.  With which race or ethnicity do you identify?

 

RV        LV

70%     72%     WHITE

21%     19%      BLACK OR AFRICAN-AMERICAN

2%       2%       HISPANIC OR LATINO

2%       2%       ASIAN

1%       1%        AMERICAN INDIAN

2%       2%       OTHER/MIXED

2%       3%       DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

F.  Were you born in North Carolina or did you move here from somewhere else? If moved: How long have you lived in North Carolina?

 

RV        LV

53%     53%     BORN IN NORTH CAROLINA

9%       7%        FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, 1-5 YEARS IN NC

7%       7%        FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, 6-10 YEARS IN NC

6%       5%        FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, 11-15 YEARS IN NC

5%       6%        FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, 16-20 YEARS IN NC

20%     21%     FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, MORE THAN 20 YEARS IN NC

1%       <1%      DON’T KNOW/REFUSED

 

G.  Party Registration [Voter File]

 

RV        LV

42%     42%     Democrat

31%     32%     Republican

27%     26%     Unaffiliated

 

H.  Region

 

RV        LV

12%     11%       Mountains

24%     24%     Charlotte Area

18%     17%      Triad

22%     22%     Triangle

25%     26%     Coastal Plains

*Due to rounding, values may not add to 100%. All subtotals are individually accurate, regardless of rounded component values.

METHODOLOGY: American Insights surveyed 600 Registered Voters in North Carolina between September 5th and 10th, then determined 459 to be Likely Voters based on four turnout questions. The margin of error is ±4.0% for Registered Voters and ±4.6% for Likely Voters. ‘Triple Helix’ mixed modal surveying methodology included 50% live landline phone, 20% cell phone and 30% online.  All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics and the sample was designed to accurately reflect the actual registered voter population in North Carolina according to age, race, gender, geographic area and party registration.  On party registration, the registered voter sample precisely matches the registered voter population at 42% Democrat, 31% Republican, 27% Unaffiliated.