1. In November we will be holding elections for several offices including US Senate and House as well as state and local offices. Thinking ahead to these elections, how likely would you say it is that you will vote? Would you say…
RV LV
56% 72% EXTREMELY LIKELY
24% 26% VERY LIKELY
12% 2% SOMEWHAT LIKELY
3% 0% NOT VERY LIKELY
3% 0% NOT AT ALL LIKELY
2% 0% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
2. Please rate your chances of voting in November’s midterm election on a scale of 1 to 10. If 1 represents someone who definitely will not vote and 10 represents someone who definitely will vote, where on this scale of 1 to 10 would you place yourself?
RV LV
58% 74% 10
9% 11% 9
13% 12% 8
6% 2% 7
3% 0% 6
5% 0% 5
1% 0% 4
2% 0% 3
1% 0% 2
2% 0% 1
1% 0% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
3. Thinking about ALL elections since you registered to vote – not just presidential elections, but also midterm and local elections – how often would state records show that you voted?
RV LV
33% 41% ALWAYS
38% 46% NEARLY ALWAYS
16% 11% PART OF THE TIME
8% 2% SELDOM
4% 0% NEVER
1% 0% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
4. How much attention are you paying to politics, candidates and the upcoming elections?
RV LV
51% 65% QUITE A LOT
34% 30% SOME
12% 5% ONLY A LITTLE
3% 1% NONE
<1% 0% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
5. Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual, or less enthusiastic?
RV LV
46% 55% MORE ENTHUSIASTIC
30% 24% LESS ENTHUSIASTIC
22% 19% SAME
2% 1% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
6. If the election for US Senate were held today, would you vote for Democrat Kay Hagan, Republican Thom Tillis, or Libertarian Sean Haugh? If choice: And would you say that is definitely or probably Hagan/Tillis/Haugh? If undecided: Would you say you are leaning towards Hagan, Tillis or Haugh?
RV LV
29% 34% DEFINITELY HAGAN
9% 8% PROBABLY HAGAN
4% 3% LEAN HAGAN
11% 8% UNDECIDED
2% 2% LEAN TILLIS
7% 8% PROBABLY TILLIS
22% 26% DEFINITELY TILLIS
1% 1% LEAN HAUGH
4% 4% PROBABLY HAUGH
2% 1% DEFINITELY HAUGH
9% 5% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
38% 43% TOTAL HAGAN
29% 34% TOTAL TILLIS
6% 5% TOTAL HAUGH
42% 46% TOTAL HAGAN (INCL LEANERS)
31% 36% TOTAL TILLIS (INCL LEANERS)
7% 6% TOTAL HAUGH (INCL LEANERS)
6A. HAUGH SUPPORTERS ONLY: What is your primary reason for your choice in Senate candidate?
RV LV
23% 21% THEY SHARE MY IDEOLOGY
7% 11% I LIKE THEIR EXPERIENCE
48% 46% I DON’T LIKE THE OTHER TWO CANDIDATES
16% 11% I DON’T LIKE THE OTHER TWO PARTIES
7% 11% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
6B. HAUGH SUPPORTERS ONLY: Would you consider voting for another candidate when the time comes to cast your ballot, or not?
RV LV
71% 82% YES
21% 11% NO
9% 7% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
7. If your only choices in the Senate race were Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis, for whom would you vote? If choice: And would you say that is definitely or probably Hagan/Tillis? If undecided: Would you say you are leaning towards Hagan or Tillis?
RV LV
33% 38% DEFINITELY HAGAN
10% 9% PROBABLY HAGAN
4% 3% LEAN HAGAN
10% 7% UNDECIDED
3% 2% LEAN TILLIS
7% 6% PROBABLY TILLIS
27% 31% DEFINITELY TILLIS
7% 4% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
44% 47% TOTAL HAGAN
33% 38% TOTAL TILLIS
47% 50% TOTAL HAGAN (INCL LEANERS)
36% 40% TOTAL TILLIS (INCL LEANERS)
8. Do you think of your vote for Congress as a vote for Obama, as a vote against Obama, or is he not much of a factor in your vote?
RV LV
21% 21% FOR OBAMA
29% 31% AGAINST OBAMA
44% 42% NOT A FACTOR
7% 6% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
9. Will the issue of which party controls the US Senate be a factor in your vote, or not?
RV LV
62% 68% YES
32% 29% NO
6% 3% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
10. Did you watch the recent debate between Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan, or not?
RV LV
34% 39% YES
65% 59% NO
1% 1% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
10A. If yes: Which candidate did you think performed better in the debate, Thom Tillis or Kay Hagan?
RV LV
52% 54% HAGAN
33% 33% TILLIS
15% 13% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
10B. If yes: Did you learn anything about the candidates by watching the debate that you did not already know?
RV LV
44% 44% YES
53% 53% NO
4% 3% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
11. If you owned a business, who would you trust more to run it, Kay Hagan or Thom Tillis?
RV LV
34% 36% HAGAN
34% 38% TILLIS
1% 1% BOTH
16% 13% NEITHER
16% 12% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
12. Have you seen or heard political advertisements regarding the US Senate race in North Carolina between Kay Hagan and Thom Tillis? If so, have the ads influenced your opinion of the candidates?
RV LV
21% 21% YES, AND INFLUENCED OPINION
55% 58% YES, BUT DID NOT INFLUENCE OPINION
21% 18% NO, HAVE NOT SEEN OR HEARD ADS
4% 3% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
12A. If yes: How often have you seen or heard political ads regarding the Senate race recently?
RV LV
33% 37% MULTIPLE TIMES PER DAY
27% 29% DAILY
24% 22% A FEW TIMES A WEEK
8% 7% WEEKLY
6% 5% LESS THAN WEEKLY
2% 1% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
13. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Kay Hagan is doing as US Senator? And would you say you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?
RV LV
18% 21% STRONGLY APPROVE
25% 25% SOMEWHAT APPROVE
10% 8% UNDECIDED
15% 14% SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
26% 30% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
6% 3% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
43% 46% TOTAL APPROVE
41% 43% TOTAL DISAPPROVE
14. Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?
RV LV
46% 44% SHOULD BE RECOGNIZED
46% 48% SHOULD NOT BE RECOGNIZED
9% 8% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
15. Regardless of your own preference on the same-sex marriage issue, do you believe North Carolina law defining marriage should be determined by voters or courts?
RV LV
62% 63% VOTERS
26% 27% COURTS
12% 10% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
16. North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper has publicly announced that he will not defend in court the State Constitutional Amendment passed by voters in 2012 defining marriage as between one man and one woman. Do you support or oppose his decision?
RV LV
41% 43% SUPPORT
46% 47% OPPOSE
13% 10% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
17. If the election for governor were held today would you vote for Republican Pat McCrory or Democrat Roy Cooper? And would you say that is definitely or probably McCrory/Cooper?
RV LV
29% 33% DEFINITELY MCCRORY
11% 10% PROBABLY MCCRORY
15% 11% UNDECIDED
11% 11% PROBABLY COOPER
27% 30% DEFINITELY COOPER
7% 5% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
40% 43% TOTAL MCCRORY
38% 40% TOTAL COOPER
18. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat McCrory is doing as North Carolina Governor? And would you say you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?
RV LV
16% 18% STRONGLY APPROVE
27% 28% SOMEWHAT APPROVE
11% 9% UNDECIDED
13% 14% SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
27% 29% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
6% 2% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
43% 46% TOTAL APPROVE
40% 42% TOTAL DISAPPROVE
19. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? And would you say you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?
RV LV
22% 23% STRONGLY APPROVE
20% 20% SOMEWHAT APPROVE
7% 5% UNDECIDED
7% 5% SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE
41% 44% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
3% 3% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
42% 43% TOTAL APPROVE
48% 49% TOTAL DISAPPROVE
20. What do you believe is the most important issue facing the nation? [Open Ended]
LV
36% ECONOMY
25% OTHER DOMESTIC ISSUES
21% FOREIGN AFFAIRS
3% MORALITY/RELIGION
10% OTHER
6% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
21. What do you care more about as a voter, social issues or economic issues?
RV LV
26% 26% SOCIAL ISSUES
64% 64% ECONOMIC ISSUES
10% 10% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
22. Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses. Other people think that the government should do more to solve our country’s problems. Which comes closer to your own view?
RV LV
48% 51% GOVERNMENT DOING TOO MUCH
39% 38% GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO MORE
13% 11% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
23. With which religious faith do you self-identify?
RV LV
55% 58% CHRISTIAN – PROTESTANT
11% 12% CHRISTIAN – CATHOLIC
1% 1% JEWISH
1% 1% MUSLIM
16% 16% OTHER RELIGION
12% 10% NON-RELIGIOUS
4% 3% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
24. If Christian: On a scale from 1 to 10, how strongly would you say your Christian faith influences your voting choices, with 1 meaning your faith has no influence and 10 meaning your faith has a major influence?
RV FDV
37% 66% 10
6% 8% 9
12% 12% 8
9% 7% 7
5% 3% 6
13% 1% 5
3% 0% 4
4% 0% 3
3% 1% 2
8% 3% 1
1% 2% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
25. If Christian: As a person of faith, do you believe it is your responsibility to vote, or not?
RV FDV
83% 95% YES
12% 4% NO
5% 1% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
26. If Christian: Do you think faith should be a factor in politics and governing, or not?
RV FDV
54% 83% YES
40% 16% NO
6% 2% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
27. If Christian: In general, how well do political candidates connect or resonate with you as a Christian?
RV FDV
12% 19% VERY WELL
33% 29% MODERATELY WELL
30% 35% POORLY
17% 12% NOT AT ALL
9% 6% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
28. If Christian: Do you feel the Republican Party represents you well on the issues related to your faith, or not?
RV FDV
35% 45% YES
53% 47% NO
12% 9% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
29. If Christian: Do you feel the Democrat Party represents you well on the issues related to your faith, or not?
RV FDV
26% 27% YES
62% 65% NO
12% 9% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
30. If Christian: Do you feel Republican senate candidate Thom Tillis represents you well on the issues related to your faith, or not?
RV FDV
27% 38% YES
45% 37% NO
28% 26% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
31. If Christian: Do you feel Democratic senate candidate Kay Hagan represents you well on the issues related to your faith, or not?
RV FDV
24% 26% YES
55% 61% NO
21% 14% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
32. If Christian: Do you consider yourself to be a faith driven voter, defined as someone whose faith significantly influences their daily decisions, including voting choices, or not?
RV FDV
50% 100% YES
45% 0% NO
5% 0% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
A. Gender
RV LV
46% 49% MALE
54% 51% FEMALE
B. In what year were you born?
RV LV
27% 20% 18-34
23% 23% 35-49
28% 31% 50-64
22% 25% 65+
C. Politically, do you think of yourself as a…
RV LV
17% 20% STRONG REPUBLICAN
9% 7% NOT SO STRONG REPUBLICAN
26% 27% INDEPENDENT
12% 11% NOT SO STRONG DEMOCRAT
24% 25% STRONG DEMOCRAT
2% 2% LIBERTARIAN
6% 5% SOMETHING ELSE
4% 3% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
26% 27% TOTAL REPUBLICAN
26% 27% INDEPENDENT
36% 36% TOTAL DEMOCRAT
D. How would you describe your political views?
RV LV
12% 14% VERY CONSERVATIVE
23% 24% CONSERVATIVE
33% 29% MODERATE
17% 18% LIBERAL OR PROGRESSIVE
9% 10% VERY LIBERAL OR PROGRESSIVE
6% 5% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
35% 38% TOTAL CONSERVATIVE
33% 29% MODERATE
26% 28% TOTAL LIBERAL OR PROGRESSIVE
E. With which race or ethnicity do you identify?
RV LV
70% 72% WHITE
21% 19% BLACK OR AFRICAN-AMERICAN
2% 2% HISPANIC OR LATINO
2% 2% ASIAN
1% 1% AMERICAN INDIAN
2% 2% OTHER/MIXED
2% 3% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
F. Were you born in North Carolina or did you move here from somewhere else? If moved: How long have you lived in North Carolina?
RV LV
53% 53% BORN IN NORTH CAROLINA
9% 7% FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, 1-5 YEARS IN NC
7% 7% FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, 6-10 YEARS IN NC
6% 5% FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, 11-15 YEARS IN NC
5% 6% FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, 16-20 YEARS IN NC
20% 21% FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE, MORE THAN 20 YEARS IN NC
1% <1% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED
G. Party Registration [Voter File]
RV LV
42% 42% Democrat
31% 32% Republican
27% 26% Unaffiliated
H. Region
RV LV
12% 11% Mountains
24% 24% Charlotte Area
18% 17% Triad
22% 22% Triangle
25% 26% Coastal Plains
*Due to rounding, values may not add to 100%. All subtotals are individually accurate, regardless of rounded component values.
METHODOLOGY: American Insights surveyed 600 Registered Voters in North Carolina between September 5th and 10th, then determined 459 to be Likely Voters based on four turnout questions. The margin of error is ±4.0% for Registered Voters and ±4.6% for Likely Voters. ‘Triple Helix’ mixed modal surveying methodology included 50% live landline phone, 20% cell phone and 30% online. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics and the sample was designed to accurately reflect the actual registered voter population in North Carolina according to age, race, gender, geographic area and party registration. On party registration, the registered voter sample precisely matches the registered voter population at 42% Democrat, 31% Republican, 27% Unaffiliated.
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