CNN POLL SHOWS TIED RACE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE – A new CNN/ORC poll released on Monday morning finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and Republican Scott Brown tied at 48 percent — the best margin for Brown since January, when a Purple Strategies poll also found the race tied. A string of polling conducted since August has found Shaheen’s significant lead over Brown narrowing, with two other non-partisan surveys giving her leads of 2 and 6 points. Non-partisan polls in June and July had her ahead 8 to 12 points. The most recent HuffPost Pollster estimate of the race, which as of this writing does not yet include the new CNN survey, gives Shaheen a slightly better than 6-point advantage. [Pollster chart]
Democratic polling (unsurprisingly) shows much better numbers for Shaheen – Reid Wilson: “The DSCC will release a poll today showing Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leading former Sen. Scott Brown (R) 51 percent to 43 percent. Shaheen has a whopping 24-point edge among women; Brown leads among men by 10. And Shaheen’s fav/unfav ratings are a positive 50 percent to 45 percent, while Brown’s are underwater by 13 points. The DSCC loves hiring Boston-based pollster Tom Kiley for New England races; he doesn’t get them wrong very often.” [WashPost]
OTHER SENATE RACES
North Carolina – An Elon University poll released Monday gives incumbent Kay Hagan (D) a 4-point edge over Thom Tillis (R), 45 to 41. The Republican pollster American Insights found Hagan leading by 10 points. Five of the six publicly released surveys conducted so far in September in North Carolina have given Hagan at least a nominal advantage over Tillis. The most recent update of the Pollster poll tracking model, as of this writing, gives Hagan a slightly better than three percentage point advantage, although the margin remains close enough to hold her probability of winning in November under 60 percent. [Elon, American Insights, Pollster North Carolina chart]
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