NEW POLL: NC Republicans Approach New Legislative Session on Even Footing, Tied with Democrats on Legislative Ballot

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Contact: Matthew Faraci
Office: (919) 645-0771
Email: press@americaninsights.org

NEW POLL: NC Republicans Approach New Legislative Session on Even Footing, Tied with Democrats on Legislative Ballot

American Insights Signature Survey finds that North Carolina’s registered voters are evenly split in their support for state legislative candidates; Republicans and Democrats are tied at 41%, with 18% of voters remaining on the fence

(Raleigh, NC – March 11, 2014) — American Insights (AI), an innovative, North Carolina-based polling and microtargeting firm, is releasing new data measuring the state legislative ballot as well as registered voters’ views on the direction of North Carolina and their own economic future. Using its signature AI Triple Helix polling methodology – which includes landline, cell phone, and online panel responses – American Insights achieves highly representative and accurate data, precisely reflecting the North Carolina voter population.

“After months of heated debate over public policy in North Carolina, our survey finds that North Carolina’s Republican legislators are neck and neck with Democrats. Republicans hold a four-point lead with voters who are firm in their support and are leading by 10 points among Independents. Democrats, on the other hand, are performing stronger with women by 5 points. Our AI Trends Charts show that the tied ballot, consistent with other polls over recent months, is an improvement for Republicans since last summer when they trailed Democrats by an average of 8 points,” said AI Insights Director Pearce Godwin. “Nearly 2 in 10 voters have yet to weigh in on who they support. As we track this question in the lead-up to the November election, we’ll watch how the numbers move to determine which party is successfully connecting with those voters still up for grabs. While our numbers over the last few weeks have been less dire for both Senator Kay Hagan and Governor Pat McCrory, the discontent in the electorate should give elected officials in both parties pause.”

North Carolina legislative Republicans approach the new session on even ground, as an equal 41% of voters would vote for the Republican and Democratic candidate for state legislature if the election were held today. 30% would definitely vote for the Republican while 26% would definitely back the Democrat. Independents give Republicans a 10-point advantage on the legislative ballot, 38% to 28%. Men and women diverge as male voters opt for Republicans by 6 (44%-38%) while female voters prefer Democrats by 5 (44%-39%).

34% of voters believe NC is headed in the right direction, but 48% believe the state is on the wrong track. Republicans are optimistic that the state is headed in the right direction (52%), but Independents and Democrats are far less rosy at 32% and 24%, respectively. The youngest (18-34) and oldest (65+) voters are evenly split on the direction of the state; it is middle-aged voters who are most concerned about the direction North Carolina is moving.

46% of voters are less confident in their economic future today than they were two years ago while 26% are more confident. Democrats and young voters express the most confidence, while Republicans are least certain what the future holds.

NC DIRECTION & LEGISLATIVE BALLOT INSIGHTS

• The NC state legislative ballot shows Republicans and Democrats exactly tied at 41% with 30% definitely voting Republican and 26% definitely Democrat.
  • Republicans lead the legislative ballot among Independents 38% to 28%.
  • Republicans earn the vote of 93% of their base to the Democrats’ 85% of theirs.
  • The support of male and female voters almost equally diverges with men supporting Republican legislative candidates 44% to 38% while women support the Democratic candidates 44%-39%.
  • The younger voters (18-34) strongly favor Democratic candidates, by 23 points, (50%-27%), while the older voters (65+) anticipate voting Republican by 22 points (55%-33%). Voters 35-49 are dead even at 42%, while those 50-64 opt for Republicans 44% to 39%.
• 48% of voters see North Carolina as being on the wrong track whereas 34% believe the state is headed in the right direction.
  
  • Independents say wrong track by 17 points (32%-49%) and Democrats by 38 points (24%-62%) while Republicans are optimistic with a majority seeing North Carolina headed in the right direction (52%-29%).
  • A majority of women view NC as being on the wrong track (51%-32%).
  • The youngest (18-34) and oldest (65+) are evenly split on the direction of the state (44%-46% and 38%-37% respectively), but the middle two age groups are significantly more pessimistic as those in the 35-49 age range report wrong track by 32 points (29%-61%) and voters aged 50-64 agree by 23 points (27%-50%).
• 46% of voters feel less confident in their economic future today than they did two years ago, compared with 26% who feel more confident.​
  • Democrats and younger voters are the most optimistic at 38% and 40% more confident respectively.
  • Republicans claim to be less confident 61% to 18%, while Independents are less confident 48% to 23%.
  • While a full 50% of women are less confident, compared to 22% more confident, 42% of men are less confident versus 31% more confident.
  • All age groups except the youngest (18-34) are less confident by margins of 27 to 29 points.  Voters 18 to 34 are more evenly divided at 40% more confident to 43% less confident.

See full survey questions and results here. (http://americaninsights.org/february-signature-poll-results/)

METHODOLOGY: American Insights surveyed 611 registered voters in North Carolina between February 11th and 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.0%. “Triple Helix” mixed modal surveying methodology included 60% landline phone, 20% cell phone, and 20% online.  All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to accurately reflect the actual registered voter population in North Carolina according to age, race, gender, geographic area and party registration.  On party registration, the sample precisely matched the registered voter population at 43% Democrat, 31% Republican, 26% Unaffiliated.

American Insights regularly takes the pulse of North Carolinians to determine where they stand on key topics including politics, public policy, business, and cultural issues. The firm’s website –AmericanInsights.org – serves as a hub for data and intelligence on topics of interest, featuring exclusive AI Trend Charts, which aggregate all North Carolina polling data on key topics, providing a one-stop snapshot of current trends in the state.

Follow @AmericanInsight on Twitter for the latest updates from the AI Team.

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