NEW POLL: NC Independent Voters Strongly Disapprove of Obama, Health Care Reform Rollout Damages Confidence in Government, Republicans Leading Generic Congressional Ballot

Contact: Matthew Faraci
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NEW POLL: NC Independent Voters Strongly Disapprove of Obama, Health Care Reform Rollout Damages Confidence in Government, Republicans Leading Generic Congressional Ballot

American Insights Signature Survey finds that North Carolina’s registered voters disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, are wary of seeing his policy agenda in NC, have lost confidence in government following ACA rollout, and favor Republican candidates for US Congress 44% to 38%.

(Raleigh, NC – March 18, 2014) — American Insights (AI), an innovative, North Carolina-based polling and microtargeting firm, has new polling revealing that President Obama and his policy agenda are unpopular among registered voters in North Carolina, and that the rollout of the Affordable Care Act has resulted in lower confidence in government among voters.

The survey, conducted using the AI Triple Helix polling methodology– which includes landline, cell phone, and online panel responses – also found that if the midterm election were held today, Republican Congressional candidates would enjoy a 6-point lead over Democratic candidates.

“While our survey of North Carolina voters found President Obama’s net approval less negative than the current average of all NC polls in our AI Trends Charts, we discovered significant vulnerabilities for the President and Democratic candidates in North Carolina, particularly among Independent voters, the rapidly-growing and increasingly critical voting bloc,” said AI Insights Director Pearce Godwin. “Independents disapprove of his performance by 32 points while the two parties are highly polarized. By more than a 2-to-1 margin, Independents are opposed to the President’s agenda being implemented here in North Carolina, and 62% of the critical voting bloc now have less confidence in government in light of the rollout of the Affordable Care Act. These sentiments are reflected in the generic congressional ballot on which Independents favor Republican candidates by 18 points. Given these findings, expect to see Republican messaging on the Affordable Care Act and President Obama continue to dominate in the Senate race and other 2014 contests.”

A plurality of North Carolinians, 49%, disapprove of President Obama’s job performance while 43% approve, with more strongly disapproving (38%) than strongly approving (24%). While President Obama maintains strong support from his Democratic base, he is largely unpopular among independents with 61% disapproving and 29% approving. Only young voters (ages 18-34) approve of the President’s job performance (48%-42%). According to the AI Trends Chart on Presidential Approval, the President’s approval numbers have not been positive with NC voters since a poll conducted in August 2013.

48% responded that they would not like to see the President’s agenda implemented in North Carolina, with 38% saying they would. Independents’ response to this question was very similar to presidential job approval with 61% not wanting to see his agenda implemented in the state and 26% saying the opposite.

The rollout of perhaps the largest legislative achievement of the Obama presidency, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), has damaged voters’ confidence in government, and may hurt the Democrats’ chances in the midterm elections. Half of NC voters (50%) said the rollout of the ACA had given them less confidence in government while only 19% said it had given them more confidence, with 23% saying it had no impact. Notably, 62% of Independents reported having less confidence as a result of the rollout.

When asked who they would vote for if the election for US Congress were held today, 44% of voters opted for a generic Republican candidate with 38% saying they would choose a generic Democrat.  Republicans fared 18 points better with Independent voters (43%-25%) and earn stronger base support (94%) than Democrats (78%).  Women are virtually split (41%-40%) but men strongly support Republican candidates (47%-36%).

President Obama & Congressional Insights

• North Carolina voters disapprove of President Obama’s job performance by a margin of 6 points (43% approve versus 49% disapprove). 38% strongly disapprove while 24% strongly approve. 
  • Independents disapprove of Obama by 32 points (29%-61%).  87% of Republicans disapprove with 10% approving while 80% of Democrats approve with 13% disapproving.
  • Younger voters (18-34) are the only age group approving of the President, 48% to 42%.  Older voters (65+) disapprove by a 19 point margin (37%-56%).
  • While he is on even ground with women (46%-47%), men disapprove by 12 points (40%-52%)
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• Voters, by a 10 point margin, do not want to see “President Obama’s agenda implemented on the state level in North Carolina” (38%-48%).
  • Independents are more opposed at 26% to 61%.  74% of Democrats would like to see the President’s agenda implemented in the state (74%-11%) while 84% of Republicans would not (7%-84%).
  • Younger voters (18-34) are the only age group desiring the President’s agenda at the state level, 50% to 42%.  Twice as many older voters (65+) oppose the idea (56%) than want to see the President’s agenda implemented in North Carolina (28%).
  • Men are more opposed to the idea (37%-53%) than women (40%-44%).
• The rollout of the Affordable Care Act has given 50% of voters less confidence in government and only 19% more confidence. It had no impact on the confidence of 23% of voters.
  • 62% of Independents now have less confidence in government; while only 15% have more. The rollout gave 82% of Republicans less confidence (4%-82%) and 35% of Democrats more confidence (35%-18%).  36% of the President’s party reported no impact.
  • Men (17%-51%) and women (21%-49%) now have less confidence in government by margins of 34 points and 28 points, respectively.
• The US Congressional generic ballot shows Republicans with a 6 point lead, 44% to 38%.  32% say they would definitely vote for the Republican candidate if the midterms were held today, while 25% would definitely vote for the Democrat.
  • Independents would support the Republican candidate by 18 points, 43% to 25%.  94% of Republicans support their party’s candidate while 78% of Democrats support theirs.
  • Younger voters (18-34) favor Democratic candidates by a margin of 8 (40%-32%), while older voters (65+) favor Republicans by a margin of 23 points (57%-34%).  The middle two age groups both favor Republican candidates by 4 points.
  • Women are even at 41% Republican to 40% Democrat, but men drive the overall Republican advantage with 47% support to 36% for Democrats.
• 73% of those who approve of President Obama’s job performance would vote for the Democratic candidate for US Congress while 13% would vote for the Republican.  75% of those who disapprove of the President’s performance back the Republican congressional candidate while only 7% back the Democrat.  Democratic congressional candidates enjoy double the support of Republicans among the 6% undecided on the President’s performance (38%-19%).
• 76% of those who approve of Obama’s performance would like to see his agenda implemented on the state level in North Carolina while 84% of those who disapprove would not like to see his agenda in North Carolina.  Of the 6% who are undecided on the President’s performance, 41% would not like to see his agenda in NC, while 28% would.

See full survey questions and results here. (http://americaninsights.org/february-signature-poll-results/)

METHODOLOGY: American Insights surveyed 611 registered voters in North Carolina between February 11th and 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.0%. “Triple Helix” mixed modal surveying methodology included 60% landline phone, 20% cell phone, and 20% online.  All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to accurately reflect the actual registered voter population in North Carolina according to age, race, gender, geographic area and party registration.  On party registration, the sample precisely matched the registered voter population at 43% Democrat, 31% Republican, 26% Unaffiliated.

American Insights regularly takes the pulse of North Carolinians to determine where they stand on key topics including politics, public policy, business, and cultural issues. The firm’s website –AmericanInsights.org – serves as a hub for data and intelligence on topics of interest, featuring exclusive AI Trend Charts, which aggregate all North Carolina polling data on key topics, providing a one-stop snapshot of current trends in the state.

Follow @AmericanInsight on Twitter for the latest updates from the AI Team.

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