FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
NEW POLL: McCrory Regains Positive Approval Rating, Beats Roy Cooper in Potential 2016 Matchup
American Insights Signature Survey reveals another 2014 first as North Carolina pollster finds Governor McCrory in positive territory with a +3 net approval rating – McCrory would beat Roy Cooper by 6 points if election were held today
(Raleigh, NC – March 4, 2014) — American Insights (AI), an innovative, North Carolina-based polling and microtargeting firm, is releasing new data measuring North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory’s standing among registered voters as well as the Governor’s prospects in a potential 2016 re-election matchup against current North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper. Using its signature AI Triple Helix polling methodology, which includes landline, cell phone, and online panel responses, American Insights achieves highly representative and accurate data, precisely reflecting the North Carolina voter population.
“Our signature survey suggests that North Carolina voters are not as sour on our state’s leaders as previously thought,” said AI Insights Director Pearce Godwin. “Last week, we found that Democratic Senator Kay Hagan enjoys a stronger than expected position in terms of both her approval and her upcoming electoral contest than previous polls revealed. Today, we see that Republican Governor Pat McCrory’s numbers are also stronger than expected, both in his approval and re-election numbers.
However, both leaders are experiencing a negative intensity gap as more voters strongly disapprove of their performance than strongly approve, indicating there are underlying vulnerabilities.”
One year into his first term as Governor, McCrory holds a 43 percent job approval rating among registered voters, with 40 percent disapproving. 19% strongly approve of his performance, while 27% strongly disapprove. McCrory’s Republican base is better consolidated in his favor – at 70% approval, than Democrats are in disapproval – at 59%. According to other NC pollsters, McCrory’s net approval rating declined significantly among voters beginning in the spring of 2013 and became net negative through the end of the year. American Insights now finds that the Governor has regained a positive approval rating, bolstered by the support of men (46%-39%) and–perhaps surprisingly–young voters age 18 to 34 (40%-37%).
McCrory’s increased approval positively impacts the Governor’s 2016 re-election prospects. 44 percent of voters indicate they would vote for McCrory, with 38 percent opting for Attorney General Roy Cooper in a likely 2016 matchup. The 6 point advantage is outside the poll’s 4 point margin of error. McCrory leads Cooper among Independent voters 44 percent to 35 percent. The incumbent governor also earns a higher percentage of his party base, with 79 percent of Republicans opting for McCrory compared to 66 percent of Democrats for Cooper. Again, male voters significantly contribute to the Governor’s advantage (47%-37%). Among those who are currently undecided regarding the Governor’s job performance, he leads Cooper in the likely matchup 31% to 15%, with 44% undecided on the potential ballot as well.
NORTH CAROLINA GUBERNATORIAL INSIGHTS
Governor Pat McCrory enjoys a positive approval rating at 43% to 40%. 19% strongly approve while 27% strongly disapprove.
- McCrory’s net approval stands at negative 2 with Independents (39%-41%), but his Republican base is better consolidated in his favor – at 70% approval, than Democrats are in disapproval – 59%.
- Women are exactly divided at 41% in assessing the Governor, but men approve of the job he is doing 46% to 39%.
- He earns a net approval of positive 3 from the 18-34 age group (40%-37%) and is strongly supported by those aged 65+, 52% to 34%. The middle age groups, 35 to 49 and 50 to 64, disapprove of McCrory’s job performance by 4 points and 6 points respectively.
Governor McCrory currently leads in a hypothetical 2016 matchup with Attorney General Roy Cooper 44% to 38%, a 6 point advantage outside the poll’s 4 point margin of error. 30% definitely would vote for McCrory while 24% would definitely vote for Cooper.
- McCrory leads Cooper among Independents 44% to 35%.
- McCrory attracts 79% of the Republican vote while Cooper only earns 66% of the Democratic vote.
- Men favor McCrory over Cooper by 10 points (47%-37%); the Governor holds a 3-point advantage among female voters (42%-39%).
- McCrory only trails with voters age 18-34 by 2 points, 39% to 41%, but is further behind, by 9 points, among 35-49 year olds (37%-46%). Voters 50-64 give McCrory a 7-point (44%-37%) advantage, which grows to 27 points (57%-30%) among the oldest, 65+, voters.
- Among those who approve of Governor McCrory’s job in office, he leads Cooper 77% to 14%. Among those who disapprove of his performance, McCrory trails Cooper 13% to 73%. Among those who are currently undecided regarding the Governor’s performance, he leads Cooper in the likely matchup 31% to 15%, with 44% undecided on the potential ballot as well.
See full survey questions and results here.
METHODOLOGY: American Insights surveyed 611 registered voters in North Carolina between February 11th and 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.0%. Mixed modal surveying methodology included 60% landline phone, 20% cell phone, and 20% online. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to accurately reflect the actual registered voter population in North Carolina according to age, race, gender, geographic area and party registration. On party registration, the sample precisely matched the registered voter population at 43% Democrat, 31% Republican, 26% Unaffiliated.
American Insights discovers and reveals the genuine opinions and motivations of Americans through polling, survey research and microtargeting, yielding actionable insights for our clients and the general public.